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Silicon Valley real estate news

The Big Story

Rates ↑, Sales ↓

Key Takeaways:

  1. Resilient Home Prices: Despite a slight year-over-year decline in some areas, overall home prices in Silicon Valley remain robust. The median prices have shown resilience, with notable increases in Santa Clara and Santa Cruz counties.
  2. Inventory Dynamics: The inventory levels, while still low, have shown signs of recovery. An increase in new listings has provided a healthier market outlook, offering more options for eager buyers.
  3. Market Competitiveness: The persistent low Months of Supply Inventory (MSI) underscores a strong seller's market, with homes selling quickly and often above the asking price. This competitiveness is expected to continue, with buyers needing to act swiftly and decisively.
  4. Mortgage Rates Impact: Elevated mortgage rates have introduced caution among buyers and sellers. However, the market's underlying strength suggests that demand will remain high, and prices will continue to rise as inventory gradually increases.
  5. Future Outlook: As we move into the summer months, the expectation is for new listings to rise, driving sales and potentially leading to new price highs. Buyers should be prepared for a competitive market, and sellers should leverage the current conditions to maximize their returns.

Quick Take:

  • Prices have already risen 6.8% over the past three months, landing only 2.2% below the all-time high reached in June 2022. Additionally, the median list price per square foot hit an all-time high in April 2024.
  • Mortgage rates rose nearly half a percentage point in April due to changing Fed rate cut expectations, hitting the highest level yet in 2024. The Fed has expressed that inflation is taking longer to settle at 2% than originally expected, so higher rates will likely persist for most — if not all — of 2024.
  • Sales fell 4.3% month-over-month, and inventory rose 4.7%. The combination of rising prices and interest rates priced buyers out of the market, which dropped sales.

Another Market Slowdown

The average 30-year mortgage rate began the year at 6.62%, marking the start of the third consecutive year of elevated mortgage rates. Initially, economists anticipated rate cuts by March, but persistent inflation around 3% has delayed these expectations. During its May meeting, the Federal Reserve kept policy rates steady at 5.25% to 5.50%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that future rate hikes are unlikely, with stability in rates being more probable. This stance, driven by a strong job market and inflation concerns, has led to higher mortgage rates.

Mortgage rates have increased by 0.6% since the start of the year, with two-thirds of this rise occurring in April. As of May, the average 30-year mortgage rate hit 7.22%, just shy of the 23-year high of 7.79% set last year. These higher rates, coupled with rising home prices, have significantly impacted affordability. From January to April, the monthly cost of a home increased by 13%, reflecting the combined effects of rising median prices and mortgage rates.

Despite high demand, the housing market is slowing due to inventory constraints and rising prices. Even with elevated mortgage rates feeling more normal, rates above 7% are causing potential buyers and sellers to hesitate. The spring market showed signs of normalcy with rising sales and inventory, but recent rate increases have dampened sales, a rare occurrence in the spring.

The Local Lowdown

Quick Take:

  • Median home prices are slightly below peak levels across Silicon Valley. As more new listings come to market, we expect prices to continue rising and to reach new highs during the summer months.
  • Active listings, sales, and new listings rose in Silicon Valley month over month, which are all beneficial for the housing market. We expect inventory to increase in the first half of the year, and possibly return to a more normal market, after the slowdown experienced over the past year and a half.
  • Months of Supply Inventory declined from January to April, indicating that buyer competition is ramping up. MSI implies a sellers’ market in Silicon Valley across counties.

Median Prices Rose Month Over Month in Santa Clara and Santa Cruz, but Fell in San Mateo

In Silicon Valley, low inventory and high demand have more than offset the downward price pressure from higher mortgage rates, and prices generally haven’t experienced larger drops due to higher mortgage rates. Month over month, in April, the median single-family home price fell 1% in San Mateo, but rose 4% in Santa Clara and 9% in Santa Cruz. Year over year, prices were also up across markets for single-family homes, up 9% in San Mateo, 11% in Santa Clara, and 5% in Santa Cruz. Similarly, condo prices rose significantly month over month in Santa Clara and Santa Cruz, but fell in San Mateo. We expect prices in Silicon Valley to remain slightly below peak until the early summer, but prices will almost certainly reach new highs in the second quarter of 2024. Low, but rising inventory is only increasing prices as buyers are better able to find the best match.

High mortgage rates soften both supply and demand, but homebuyers seemed to tolerate rates above 6%. Now that rates are above 7%, sales may slow slightly in the next couple of months, which isn’t great for the market, but isn’t it terrible, either, as it may allow inventory to build in a massively undersupplied market.

Single-Family Home Inventory, Sales, and New Listings Increased Month Over Month

Since the start of 2023, single-family home inventory has followed fairly typical seasonal trends, but at significantly depressed levels. Low inventory and fewer new listings have slowed the market considerably. Typically, inventory peaks in July or August and declines through December or January, but the lack of new listings prevented meaningful inventory growth. Last year, new listings and sales peaked in May, while inventory peaked in September. New listings have been exceptionally low, so the little inventory growth in 2023 was driven by softening demand. In December 2023, inventory and sales dropped, but more new listings came to the market in 2024, which has driven the significant increase in sales so far this year. The market is already looking healthier, and we expect more new listings and sales in Q2 2024.

With the current inventory levels, the number of new listings coming to market is a significant predictor of sales. New listings rose 19% month over month, and sales followed suit, increasing 26%. Year over year, inventory is up 15%, and sales are up 44%. Demand is clearly high in Silicon Valley, but more supply is needed for a healthier market.

Months of Supply Inventory Fell in April 2024, Indicating a Sellers’ Market

Months of Supply Inventory (MSI) quantifies the supply/demand relationship by measuring how many months it would take for all current homes listed on the market to sell at the current rate of sales. The long-term average MSI is around three months in California, which indicates a balanced market. An MSI lower than three indicates that there are more buyers than sellers on the market (meaning it’s a sellers’ market), while a higher MSI indicates there are more sellers than buyers (meaning it’s a buyers’ market). The Silicon Valley market tends to favor sellers, which is reflected in its low MSI. MSI trended higher in the second half of 2023, but never climbed above three months of supply. From January to April 2024, single-family home and condo MSI fell significantly, indicating the housing market strongly favors sellers.

Conclusion

The Silicon Valley housing market continues to demonstrate resilience and strength amidst rising mortgage rates and evolving economic conditions. While higher interest rates have moderated the pace of sales, they have not significantly dampened the upward trajectory of home prices. In May 2024, the region remains firmly in a seller's market, characterized by high demand, low inventory, and competitive bidding.

For those navigating this dynamic market, having a seasoned real estate expert by your side is crucial. Whether you're buying or selling, understanding the local nuances and trends will give you a significant advantage. Reach out if you have any questions or need guidance in making the most informed real estate decisions.

If you're considering entering the Silicon Valley housing market, now is the time to plan and act. The market's unique conditions offer both opportunities and challenges, and expert advice can help you navigate this landscape effectively. Don't hesitate to contact us for personalized insights and strategies tailored to your needs.

Text me with any questions you might have. The market is very healthy in Silicon Valley.

Text Bryan

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